Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
MIN went from 47% to 46% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Charle-Edouard D'AstousAssists2
- Jake GuentzelPoints3
Wild- Maxim ShabanovGoals2
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Maxim ShabanovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (8), John Carlson (5)4–3
- P316:29Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (4), Brayden Point (11)3–3
- P313:44Jake Guentzel Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (10), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (8)2–3
- P36:49Maxim Shabanov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P216:34Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (17)1–2
- P12:58Maxim Shabanov Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (11), Kirill Kaprizov (15)0–2
- P10:55Blake Coleman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (4), Quinn Hughes (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:55Blake Coleman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (4), Quinn Hughes (20)TB 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 46% → 61% +15MIN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P216:34Jake Guentzel Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (7), Nikita Kucherov (17)TB 1 – 2 MIN · TB 13% → 30% +17TB 13% → 30%+17 pts
- P36:49Maxim Shabanov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 77% → 93% +17MIN 77% → 93%+17 pts
- P316:29Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (4), Brayden Point (11)TB 3 – 3 MIN · TB 7% → 51% +44TB 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT3:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (8), John Carlson (5)TB 4 – 3 MIN · TB 51% → 99% +48TB 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- MIN +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | +1.23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 32 |
| 19th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 25th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
| 26th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 15524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.