Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WPG went from 50% to 41% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Pontus HolmbergGoals2
- Erik CernakAssists2
- Pontus HolmbergPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals1
- Viggo BjorckAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (7), Gabriel Vilardi (8)3–4
- P314:27Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Erik Cernak (7), Ilya Mikheyev (3)3–3
- P314:01Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Zemgus Girgensons (3)2–3
- P310:22Brandon Hagel Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (6)1–3
- P38:10Brayden Yager Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viggo Björck (3), Alex Iafallo (3)0–3
- P212:38Morgan Barron Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (8), Viggo Björck (2)0–2
- P21:53Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (14), Haydn Fleury (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:53Cole Perfetti Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (14), Haydn Fleury (3)TB 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 43% → 61% +18WPG 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P212:38Morgan Barron Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (8), Viggo Björck (2)TB 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 65% → 82% +17WPG 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P314:01Pontus Holmberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (6), Zemgus Girgensons (3)TB 2 – 3 WPG · TB 1% → 14% +13TB 1% → 14%+13 pts
- P314:27Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Erik Cernak (7), Ilya Mikheyev (3)TB 3 – 3 WPG · TB 13% → 53% +40TB 13% → 53%+40 pts
- P319:58Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (7), Gabriel Vilardi (8)TB 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 50% → 100% +50WPG 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TB -162 / WPG +136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TB: Elo 53.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -146
- WPG +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.927th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.3% | Shot share | 48.8%18th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%25th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 24th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321556 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–6 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–4 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.