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Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast

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Away

Oilers

13-3-3

43%

at

Home

Lightning

11-4-2

57%

The pick
TB · Lean
Line
Not yet
Projected
3–3
Fair odds
-135

Your pick

Benchmark International Arena · Disney+, ESPN+, Hulu

The short version

  • No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lightning at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
  • Behind that number: the Lightning have home ice and the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1537 Elo).

What's at stake

Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Oilers

Now 96%

97%

with a win

95%

with a loss

This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.

Lightning

Now 89%

91%

with a win

86%

with a loss

This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.

The pick

No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.

Lightning 57%

Lean
EDM 43%TB 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TB 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TB 57%
Fair odds
TB -135
EDM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Projected score
EDM 3.0 – 3.4 TB
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMTBWhy
Team rating15371553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies——EDM: Starter not announced · TB: Starter not announced
Elo ratingsTB +51 EloTB 57.3%
Market-implied ratingsTB 57.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTB 57.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatTB
1st of 324.1Goals scored3.76th of 32
9th of 322.9Goals allowed3.117th of 32
3rd of 32+1.2Margin+0.68th of 32
18th of 3249.1%Shot share54.9%3rd of 32
12th of 3289.6%Save percentage88.2%26th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 106–48th of 32
1st of 327–1Road vs home8–01st of 32
32nd of 321476Opponent Elo149225th of 32
7th of 321537Elo rating15533rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersLightning
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Injury report

Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.

Oilers

5 listed

  • Isaac Howard LW

    Injured Reserve

    ir

  • Alec Regula D

    Injured Reserve

    Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Matt Savoie C

    Injured Reserve

    Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.

  • Frederik Andersen G

    Injured Reserve

    Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.

  • Mattias Janmark C

    Injured Reserve

    Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.

Lightning

1 listed

  • Brayden Point C

    Injured Reserve

    ir

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMTB
Puck line13–69–7
Last 107–36–4
Favorite9–57–6
Underdog4–12–1
Overs–unders10–99–7
Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 1–5 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.