Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Lightning at 69%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1474 Elo) and the Lightning have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Red Wings
Now 20%
24%
with a win
18%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Lightning
Now 89%
90%
with a win
87%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Lightning 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -221
- DET +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- DET 2.6 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Brayden Point |
| Elo ratings | TB +115 Elo | TB 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 54.9%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 32 |
| 24th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149225th of 32 |
| 24th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15533rd of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita KucherovTB | 22 min | 1.7 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake GuentzelTB | 22 min | 1.2 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon HagelTB | 19 min | 1.0 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex DeBrincatDET | 19 min | 0.8 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lucas RaymondDET | 19 min | 0.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Viktor ArvidssonDET | 17 min | 0.7 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony CirelliTB | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| John CarlsonTB | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor HedmanTB | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Moritz SeiderDET | 25 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB | 20 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew CoppDET | 19 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gage GoncalvesTB | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Emmitt FinnieDET | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya MikheyevTB | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin FaulkDET | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pontus HolmbergTB | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yanni GourdeTB | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dominic JamesTB | 12 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan McDonaghTB | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| J.T. CompherDET | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael Brandsegg-NygardDET | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| William WallinderDET | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| JJ MoserTB | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max CrozierTB | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik CernakTB | 18 min | 0.3 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor GeekieTB | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marco KasperDET | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zemgus GirgensonsTB | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anton JohanssonDET | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael RasmussenDET | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeffrey VielTB | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Axel Sandin-PellikkaDET | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason AppletonDET | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Emil LillebergTB | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben ChiarotDET | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sheldon DriesDET | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andreas EnglundDET | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Red Wings
3 listedAlbert Johansson D
Injured ReserveJohansson (undisclosed) will be with the Red Wings for their upcoming four-game road trip, Ansar Khan of MLive.com reports Friday.
Dylan Larkin C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Simon Edvinsson D
Injured ReserveEdvinsson (contract dispute) is on the Red Wings' injured, non-roster list, per the NHL media site Wednesday.
Lightning
1 listedBrayden Point C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–8 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–6 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.