Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
STL went from 59% to 57% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:46Moritz Seider Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12), Andrew Copp (5)2–3
- P315:58Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Dylan Holloway (10), Robert Thomas (11)1–3
- P22:34Justin Barron Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Jimmy Snuggerud (4)1–2
- P20:37Pius Suter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (3), Brandon Carlo (2)1–1
- P119:47Andrew Copp Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:47Andrew Copp Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Lucas Raymond (11)DET 1 – 0 STL · DET 44% → 62% +18DET 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P20:37Pius Suter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (3), Brandon Carlo (2)DET 1 – 1 STL · STL 38% → 56% +18STL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P22:34Justin Barron Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (10), Jimmy Snuggerud (4)DET 1 – 2 STL · STL 56% → 73% +17STL 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P315:58Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Dylan Holloway (10), Robert Thomas (11)DET 1 – 3 STL · STL 93% → >99% +7STL 93% → >99%+7 pts
- P318:46Moritz Seider Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (12), Andrew Copp (5)DET 2 – 3 STL · DET <1% → <1% +1DET <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML DET +124 / STL -148
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- STL: Elo 58.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- DET +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +61 Elo | STL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 32 |
| 25th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321476 | Elo rating | 149716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.