St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NSH went from 49% to 49% over 5 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:31Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Filip Forsberg (15)1–3
- P29:02Ross Colton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Roman Josi (18)1–2
- P116:07Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (3), Roman Josi (17)1–1
- P113:07Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (9), Robert Thomas (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:07Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (9), Robert Thomas (9)STL 1 – 0 NSH · STL 51% → 67% +16STL 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P116:07Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (3), Roman Josi (17)STL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 32% → 49% +16NSH 32% → 49%+16 pts
- P29:02Ross Colton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Roman Josi (18)STL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 49% → 69% +20NSH 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P318:31Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Filip Forsberg (15)STL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 99% → >99% +1NSH 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -105
- NSH +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +9 Elo | NSH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%6th of 32 |
| 25th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 5–519th of 32 |
| 9th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15241st of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–7 NSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.