Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
- The pick
- CBJ · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -104
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Blue Jackets 51%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1489 Elo), the Blue Jackets have home ice and the Lightning are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Lightning
Now 89%
91%
with a win
87%
with a loss
This game is worth 4 points of playoff chance to them.
Blue Jackets
Now 27%
30%
with a win
23%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
CBJ went from 51% to 51% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TB 3.2 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +5 | TB: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Brayden Point |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +28 Elo | CBJ 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.9% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 25th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15212nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 148918th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita KucherovTB | 22 min | 1.5 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake GuentzelTB | 22 min | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach WerenskiCBJ | 27 min | 0.9 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon HagelTB | 19 min | 0.9 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam FantilliCBJ | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Valeri NichushkinCBJ | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew KniesCBJ | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charlie CoyleCBJ | 19 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kent JohnsonCBJ | 18 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony CirelliTB | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| John CarlsonTB | 20 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor HedmanTB | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sean MonahanCBJ | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB | 20 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mathieu OlivierCBJ | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Damon SeversonCBJ | 21 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Denton MateychukCBJ | 21 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole SillingerCBJ | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gage GoncalvesTB | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya MikheyevTB | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pontus HolmbergTB | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor GarlandCBJ | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitri VoronkovCBJ | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivan ProvorovCBJ | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yanni GourdeTB | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dominic JamesTB | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan McDonaghTB | 17 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| JJ MoserTB | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max CrozierTB | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik CernakTB | 18 min | 0.2 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor GeekieTB | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zemgus GirgensonsTB | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Steven LorentzCBJ | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeffrey VielTB | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack WilliamsCBJ | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake ChristiansenCBJ | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dante FabbroCBJ | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Emil LillebergTB | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik GudbransonCBJ | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Lightning
1 listedBrayden Point C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Blue Jackets
Nothing on the injury report.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.