Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CBJ went from 48% to 46% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Backhand0–2
- P316:46Zach Werenski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (7), Matthew Knies (4)1–1
- P36:27Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P36:27Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (11)DAL 1 – 0 CBJ · DAL 52% → 79% +27DAL 52% → 79%+27 pts
- P316:46Zach Werenski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kent Johnson (7), Matthew Knies (4)DAL 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 6% → 49% +43CBJ 6% → 49%+43 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / CBJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | — | Key absences: Miro Heiskanen |
| Elo ratings | DAL +3 Elo | DAL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 4th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15204th of 32 |
| 5th of 321539 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–11 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–3 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.