Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 51% to 50% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 2 at 9:01 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals3
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints4
Capitals- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Jordan KyrouAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:58Ryan Leonard Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (9), Jakob Chychrun (9)6–5
- P312:55Justin Sourdif Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (3), Ilya Protas (5)6–4
- P31:23Roope Hintz Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Esa Lindell (1), Jason Robertson (10)6–3
- P219:30Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Jordan Kyrou (8)5–3
- P216:58Boone Jenner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (5), Martin Fehervary (4)5–2
- P214:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (10), Jamie Benn (4)5–1
- P211:00Jordan Kyrou Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (10), Cole Hutson (5)4–1
- P25:43Jason Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (7), Roope Hintz (7)4–0
- P23:18Jason Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (2), Tyler Myers (2)3–0
- P20:23Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (9), Roope Hintz (6)2–0
- P18:56Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:56Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Radek Faksa (2), Thomas Harley (6)DAL 1 – 0 WSH · DAL 50% → 65% +15DAL 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P20:23Jason Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (9), Roope Hintz (6)DAL 2 – 0 WSH · DAL 67% → 81% +14DAL 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P23:18Jason Robertson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (2), Tyler Myers (2)DAL 3 – 0 WSH · DAL 82% → 92% +10DAL 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P219:30Jakob Chychrun Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Jordan Kyrou (8)DAL 5 – 3 WSH · WSH 3% → 11% +8WSH 3% → 11%+8 pts
- P31:23Roope Hintz Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Esa Lindell (1), Jason Robertson (10)DAL 6 – 3 WSH · DAL 90% → 97% +7DAL 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML DAL -108 / WSH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -102
- DAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | WSH +20 Elo | WSH 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.413th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 49.7%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15183rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 152411th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–11 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.