Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CBJ went from 53% to 49% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Aaron EkbladAssists2
- Sam BennettPoints2
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:44Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (4), Eetu Luostarinen (3)4–1
- P314:29Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (6), Matthew Tkachuk (23)3–1
- P219:41Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (3), Valeri Nichushkin (7)2–1
- P24:17Lars Eller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Aaron Ekblad (5)2–0
- P22:00Sam Bennett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Seth Jones (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:00Sam Bennett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Seth Jones (18)FLA 1 – 0 CBJ · FLA 51% → 68% +18FLA 51% → 68%+18 pts
- P24:17Lars Eller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Aaron Ekblad (5)FLA 2 – 0 CBJ · FLA 69% → 83% +14FLA 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P219:41Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (3), Valeri Nichushkin (7)FLA 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 10% → 26% +16CBJ 10% → 26%+16 pts
- P314:29Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (6), Matthew Tkachuk (23)FLA 3 – 1 CBJ · FLA 89% → >99% +10FLA 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P317:44Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (4), Eetu Luostarinen (3)FLA 4 – 1 CBJ · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML FLA -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 47.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Sandis Vilmanis |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +20 Elo | CBJ 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–7 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 30th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 15213rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 149417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–10 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 9–1 CBJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.