Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BUF went from 66% to 60% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Sabres- Josh NorrisGoals2
- Owen PowerAssists3
- Owen PowerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:21Zach Werenski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (5), Kent Johnson (8)2–5
- P210:53Josh Doan Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Noah Ostlund (6), Jack Quinn (7)1–5
- P29:46Josh Norris Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (13), Tage Thompson (9)1–4
- P24:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Owen Power (12)1–3
- P118:10Josh Norris Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (11)1–2
- P116:00Kent Johnson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (5), Denton Mateychuk (3)1–1
- P16:50Jack Quinn Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (10), Conor Timmins (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:50Jack Quinn Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Owen Power (10), Conor Timmins (1)CBJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 74% +14BUF 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P116:00Kent Johnson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (5), Denton Mateychuk (3)CBJ 1 – 1 BUF · CBJ 26% → 41% +15CBJ 26% → 41%+15 pts
- P118:10Josh Norris Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Power (11)CBJ 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 59% → 74% +16BUF 59% → 74%+16 pts
- P24:30Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Owen Power (12)CBJ 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 75% → 88% +12BUF 75% → 88%+12 pts
- P29:46Josh Norris Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Benson (13), Tage Thompson (9)CBJ 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 89% → 96% +7BUF 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 60%
- ML CBJ +142 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 63.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -152
- CBJ +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −2 | CBJ: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +98 Elo | BUF 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 50.5%11th of 32 |
| 9th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.0%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 27th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 152810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 6–4 BUF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.