Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BUF went from 59% to 54% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Sabres- Peyton KrebsGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Peyton KrebsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:51Michael Amadio Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), Fabian Zetterlund (6)2–1
- P311:33Shane Pinto Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Thomas Chabot (6)1–1
- P214:00Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Zach Benson (12)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:00Peyton Krebs Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (8), Zach Benson (12)OTT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 53% → 73% +21BUF 53% → 73%+21 pts
- P311:33Shane Pinto Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (2), Thomas Chabot (6)OTT 1 – 1 BUF · OTT 16% → 48% +33OTT 16% → 48%+33 pts
- P316:51Michael Amadio Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (13), Fabian Zetterlund (6)OTT 2 – 1 BUF · OTT 49% → 94% +45OTT 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML OTT +110 / BUF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | 0 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +54 Elo | BUF 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.9%11th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 87.6%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 3–320th of 32 |
| 28th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 11th of 321522 | Elo rating | 15319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–10 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–8 BUF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.