Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WSH went from 53% to 53% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:13Sam Bennett Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (21), Sam Reinhart (8)3–4
- P34:42Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (5)2–4
- P214:55Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7), Ryan Leonard (6)2–3
- P24:39Alex Tuch Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P110:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (20), Seth Jones (17)2–1
- P13:13Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (19)1–1
- P12:21Jack St. Ivany Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:13Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (19)FLA 1 – 1 WSH · FLA 32% → 47% +14FLA 32% → 47%+14 pts
- P110:00Brady Tkachuk Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (20), Seth Jones (17)FLA 2 – 1 WSH · FLA 47% → 63% +16FLA 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P24:39Alex Tuch Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 34% → 53% +19WSH 34% → 53%+19 pts
- P214:55Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (7), Ryan Leonard (6)FLA 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 52% → 73% +21WSH 52% → 73%+21 pts
- P34:42Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (5)FLA 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 78% → 93% +15WSH 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -115
- FLA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | WSH +41 Elo | WSH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.512th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 49.9%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 6–414th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 15214th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 152112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.