Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 57% to 55% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P30:58JJ Peterka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Pavel Zacha (9)1–4
- P118:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Matthew Tkachuk (22)1–3
- P115:59Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (15), Pavel Zacha (8)0–3
- P16:11Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Poke, assists: Fraser Minten (6)0–2
- P14:50Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5), Charlie McAvoy (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:50Elias Lindholm Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (5), Charlie McAvoy (8)FLA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 69% +14BOS 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:11Michael Eyssimont Goal (1) Poke, assists: Fraser Minten (6)FLA 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 69% → 81% +12BOS 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P115:59Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (15), Pavel Zacha (8)FLA 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 83% → 92% +9BOS 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P118:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (10), Matthew Tkachuk (22)FLA 1 – 3 BOS · FLA 8% → 16% +9FLA 8% → 16%+9 pts
- P30:58JJ Peterka Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (16), Pavel Zacha (9)FLA 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 91% → 98% +6BOS 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML FLA +114 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- FLA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | −4 | Key absences: James Hagens, Anton Lundell, Sandis Vilmanis |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 7th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.8%19th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 91.6%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321509 | Elo rating | 15319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–9 | 13–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 9–8 BOS in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.