Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
PIT went from 48% to 50% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Penguins- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists2
- Kaedan KorczakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:39Fraser Minten Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (9)6–2
- P216:57Morgan Geekie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (4)5–2
- P214:24Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (9), David Pastrnak (14)4–2
- P27:57Nick Robertson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10), Blake Lizotte (5)3–2
- P118:57Elias Lindholm Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P115:04Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Frederic Brunet (4), Tanner Jeannot (4)2–1
- P112:07Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), JJ Peterka (8)1–1
- P19:04Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (5), Kaedan Korczak (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:04Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (5), Kaedan Korczak (9)BOS 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 50% → 66% +15PIT 50% → 66%+15 pts
- P112:07Pavel Zacha Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (13), JJ Peterka (8)BOS 1 – 1 PIT · BOS 34% → 50% +16BOS 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P115:04Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Frederic Brunet (4), Tanner Jeannot (4)BOS 2 – 1 PIT · BOS 50% → 66% +16BOS 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P27:57Nick Robertson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (10), Blake Lizotte (5)BOS 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 16% → 31% +15PIT 16% → 31%+15 pts
- P214:24Pavel Zacha Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (9), David Pastrnak (14)BOS 4 – 2 PIT · BOS 71% → 87% +16BOS 71% → 87%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Penguins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML BOS -108 / PIT -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- BOS +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +5 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | −1 | Key absences: Evgeni Malkin, Matthew Poitras |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.3 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 8th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 149118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–4 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.