Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
The short version
- The betting market favors the Lightning, and the forecast follows it (Lightning 54%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings call it about even.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Sabres have home ice and the Lightning rate higher (1553 to 1526 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Lightning
Now 89%
91%
with a win
86%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Sabres
Now 52%
56%
with a win
48%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
BUF went from 48% to 46% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / BUF +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TB: Elo 49.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- BUF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- TB 3.4 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Brayden Point |
| Elo ratings | BUF +5 Elo | BUF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.423rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.9% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Elo rating | 152610th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita KucherovTB | 22 min | 1.6 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake GuentzelTB | 22 min | 1.1 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon HagelTB | 19 min | 0.9 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tage ThompsonBUF | 19 min | 0.9 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rasmus DahlinBUF | 24 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach BensonBUF | 22 min | 0.7 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack QuinnBUF | 18 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony CirelliTB | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| John CarlsonTB | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor HedmanTB | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah OstlundBUF | 19 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB | 20 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Owen PowerBUF | 23 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jason ZuckerBUF | 13 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh DoanBUF | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Peyton KrebsBUF | 15 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 24 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan McLeodBUF | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gage GoncalvesTB | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya MikheyevTB | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh NorrisBUF | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pontus HolmbergTB | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yanni GourdeTB | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dominic JamesTB | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan McDonaghTB | 17 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Olen ZellwegerBUF | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jiri KulichBUF | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| JJ MoserTB | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max CrozierTB | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik CernakTB | 18 min | 0.2 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor GeekieTB | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zemgus GirgensonsTB | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor TimminsBUF | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeffrey VielTB | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Beck MalenstynBUF | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyson KozakBUF | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach MetsaBUF | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Emil LillebergTB | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Lightning
1 listedBrayden Point C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Sabres
4 listedAlex Lyon G
Injured ReserveLyon (shoulder) will travel with the Sabres during the team's upcoming road trip, per Heather Engel of NHL.com.
Konsta Helenius C
OutHelenius (upper body) is week-to-week, according to Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic on Monday.
Justin Danforth RW
Injured ReserveDanforth (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Thursday, per the NHL media site.
Matt Grzelcyk D
Injured ReserveGrzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–6 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–7 BUF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.