Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
BUF went from 52% to 49% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Sabres- Beck MalenstynGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists1
- Beck MalenstynPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:00Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Shea Theodore (4)4–1
- P35:43Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (17)3–1
- P34:26Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Mattias Samuelsson (8)2–1
- P213:43Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10)2–0
- P212:17Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:17Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 0 BUF · VGK 51% → 71% +20VGK 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P213:43Jack Eichel Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (10)VGK 2 – 0 BUF · VGK 72% → 87% +15VGK 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P34:26Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (1), Mattias Samuelsson (8)VGK 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 7% → 23% +16BUF 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P35:43Tomas Hertl Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (17)VGK 3 – 1 BUF · VGK 78% → 93% +16VGK 78% → 93%+16 pts
- P310:00Tomas Hertl Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (11), Shea Theodore (4)VGK 4 – 1 BUF · VGK 96% → >99% +3VGK 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML VGK -115 / BUF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 44.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +36 Elo | BUF 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 10th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.2%26th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 29th of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 32 |
| 9th of 321534 | Elo rating | 153110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–11 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–5 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.