New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 48% to 49% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jaroslav ChmelarGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Berkly CattonAssists2
- Berkly CattonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:02Vince Dunn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (9), Matthew Wood (3)4–3
- P36:38Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (5), Chandler Stephenson (11)4–2
- P31:50Kaapo Kakko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (9), Berkly Catton (8)4–1
- P212:46Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (12), Alexis Lafrenière (9)4–0
- P113:53Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (5)3–0
- P19:05Tye Kartye Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (20), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)2–0
- P11:35Gabe Perreault Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Alexis Lafrenière (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:35Gabe Perreault Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (11), Alexis Lafrenière (8)NYR 1 – 0 SEA · NYR 51% → 65% +14NYR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P19:05Tye Kartye Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (20), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)NYR 2 – 0 SEA · NYR 66% → 79% +13NYR 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P113:53Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (5)NYR 3 – 0 SEA · NYR 80% → 90% +9NYR 80% → 90%+9 pts
- P36:38Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (5), Chandler Stephenson (11)NYR 4 – 2 SEA · SEA <1% → 6% +5SEA <1% → 6%+5 pts
- P315:02Vince Dunn Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (9), Matthew Wood (3)NYR 4 – 3 SEA · SEA <1% → 10% +10SEA <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 48%
- Fair odds
- NYR -103
- SEA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.2 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −4 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Jared McCann |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 45.5%29th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%18th of 32 |
| 25th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 32 |
| 19th of 321487 | Elo rating | 147228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.