Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 58% to 56% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 3 at 1:05 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Zach WhitecloudAssists1
- Yegor SharangovichPoints1
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:55Matty Beniers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8)1–2
- P213:09Berkly Catton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (5), Kaapo Kakko (10)1–1
- P112:45Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (2), Morgan Frost (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:45Yegor Sharangovich Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zach Whitecloud (2), Morgan Frost (6)CGY 1 – 0 SEA · CGY 44% → 61% +16CGY 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P213:09Berkly Catton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (5), Kaapo Kakko (10)CGY 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 33% → 54% +21SEA 33% → 54%+21 pts
- OT0:55Matty Beniers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8)CGY 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 52% → 93% +41SEA 52% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML CGY +120 / SEA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- CGY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Jared McCann |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.0 | Margin | 0.018th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 45.0%29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–5 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 147028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 6–8 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.