Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYR went from 60% to 58% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Wednesday, November 4 at 11:31 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Noel AcciariPoints1
Rangers- Tye KartyeGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:21Tye Kartye Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3)2–3
- P313:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Adam Fox (18)2–2
- P212:09Noel Acciari Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (6), Jamie Drysdale (7)2–1
- P210:10Simon Benoit Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (2)1–1
- P14:39Gabe Perreault Goal (5) Deflected, assists: J.T. Miller (9), Marcus Pettersson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:39Gabe Perreault Goal (5) Deflected, assists: J.T. Miller (9), Marcus Pettersson (3)PHI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 58% → 72% +14NYR 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P210:10Simon Benoit Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (2)PHI 1 – 1 NYR · PHI 25% → 44% +19PHI 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P212:09Noel Acciari Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (6), Jamie Drysdale (7)PHI 2 – 1 NYR · PHI 44% → 65% +21PHI 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P313:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (10), Adam Fox (18)PHI 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 14% → 53% +39NYR 14% → 53%+39 pts
- P315:21Tye Kartye Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (19), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3)PHI 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 52% → 91% +39NYR 52% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −14 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: James Reimer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +25 Elo | NYR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.2 | Margin | +0.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.4% | Shot share | 48.7%19th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%5th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 1st of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 25th of 321474 | Elo rating | 148519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–7 NYR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.