Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 53% to 48% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Flames- Zach WhitecloudGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:08Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (6), Simon Nemec (7)3–4
- P38:27Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (4)3–3
- P215:07Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Oliver Bonk (6)3–2
- P25:59Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (2), Yegor Sharangovich (4)2–2
- P22:16Noel Acciari Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Sean Couturier (6)2–1
- P115:26Zayne Parekh Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (4), Yegor Sharangovich (3)1–1
- P112:46Denver Barkey Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (5), Jamie Drysdale (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:16Noel Acciari Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (5), Sean Couturier (6)PHI 2 – 1 CGY · PHI 51% → 69% +18PHI 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P25:59Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (2), Yegor Sharangovich (4)PHI 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 30% → 49% +18CGY 30% → 49%+18 pts
- P215:07Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (5), Oliver Bonk (6)PHI 3 – 2 CGY · PHI 51% → 72% +21PHI 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P38:27Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (4)PHI 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 20% → 49% +29CGY 20% → 49%+29 pts
- OT4:08Matt Coronato Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (6), Simon Nemec (7)PHI 3 – 4 CGY · CGY 50% → >99% +50CGY 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -118 / CGY -102
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -107
- CGY +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +11 Elo | CGY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −1.128th of 32 |
| 30th of 3244.5% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.5%22nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–7 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 26th of 321472 | Elo rating | 145329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–5 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.