Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 55% to 53% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, November 6 at 12:02 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Flames- William StromgrenGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:46Nikita Nesterenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P318:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Beckett Sennecke (11)4–3
- P30:55Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (10), Mikael Granlund (11)3–3
- P212:02Tristan Luneau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (18), Leo Carlsson (20)2–3
- P119:02Joel Farabee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (6), Morgan Frost (8)1–3
- P116:29Joel Hanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (7), Simon Nemec (6)1–2
- P12:50Jeff Malott Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P12:23William Stromgren Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Zayne Parekh (5), Yan Kuznetsov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:50Jeff Malott Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 1 CGY · ANA 33% → 47% +14ANA 33% → 47%+14 pts
- P116:29Joel Hanley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (7), Simon Nemec (6)ANA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 52% → 69% +16CGY 52% → 69%+16 pts
- P212:02Tristan Luneau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (18), Leo Carlsson (20)ANA 2 – 3 CGY · ANA 13% → 28% +15ANA 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P30:55Leo Carlsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (10), Mikael Granlund (11)ANA 3 – 3 CGY · ANA 25% → 49% +24ANA 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P318:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (12), Beckett Sennecke (11)ANA 4 – 3 CGY · ANA 50% → 99% +49ANA 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Flames 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 53%
- ML ANA +102 / CGY -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CGY: Elo 59.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CGY -111
- ANA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | −2 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +65 Elo | CGY 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 48.3%24th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%20th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 4th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 32 |
| 25th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 145829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–7 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 6–7 CGY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.