Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
The short version
- The betting market favors the Oilers, and the forecast follows it (Oilers 64%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 63%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Oilers rate higher (1537 to 1474 Elo) and the Oilers have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Flyers
Now 8%
9%
with a win
7%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Oilers
Now 96%
97%
with a win
94%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 64% to 64% over 8 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML PHI +170 / EDM -205
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- EDM -181
- PHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PHI 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | 0 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +90 Elo | EDM 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.3 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.3% | Shot share | 49.1%18th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 32 |
| 6th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 147632nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15377th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavidEDM | 24 min | 1.8 | 2.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Leon DraisaitlEDM | 23 min | 1.6 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Evan BouchardEDM | 24 min | 1.1 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach HymanEDM | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Travis KonecnyPHI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matvei MichkovPHI | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trevor ZegrasPHI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mattias EkholmEDM | 21 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kasperi KapanenEDM | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vasily PodkolzinEDM | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver BonkPHI | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Porter MartonePHI | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Christian DvorakPHI | 18 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah CatesPHI | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan SheaEDM | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Owen TippettPHI | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamie DrysdalePHI | 23 min | 0.4 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sean CouturierPHI | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Travis SanheimPHI | 24 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyson FoersterPHI | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Denver BarkeyPHI | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Colton DachEDM | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex BumpPHI | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael BuntingPHI | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mathieu JosephEDM | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole KnublePHI | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jason DickinsonEDM | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake WalmanEDM | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Filip HallanderEDM | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex FormentonEDM | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor MurphyEDM | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noel AcciariPHI | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cam YorkPHI | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shakir MukhamadullinEDM | 16 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SeelerPHI | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ty EmbersonEDM | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| David JiricekPHI | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Simon BenoitPHI | 15 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Flyers
2 listedRasmus Ristolainen D
Injured ReserveRistolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Nikita Grebenkin RW
Injured ReserveGrebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Oilers
5 listedIsaac Howard LW
Injured Reserveir
Alec Regula D
Injured ReserveRegula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Matt Savoie C
Injured ReserveSavoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
Frederik Andersen G
Injured ReserveAndersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.
Mattias Janmark C
Injured ReserveJanmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–9 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.