Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
VAN went from 50% to 45% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:27 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis SanheimGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists2
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Canucks- Jonathan LekkerimakiGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Jonathan LekkerimakiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:01Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P312:44Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (10), Elias Pettersson (16)2–1
- P23:05Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Christian Dvorak (7)2–0
- P12:03Michael Bunting Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Nick Seeler (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:03Michael Bunting Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (6), Nick Seeler (6)PHI 1 – 0 VAN · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P23:05Travis Konecny Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (4), Christian Dvorak (7)PHI 2 – 0 VAN · PHI 71% → 85% +13PHI 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P312:44Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (10), Elias Pettersson (16)PHI 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 2% → 14% +12VAN 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P319:01Travis Sanheim Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 1 VAN · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / VAN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- VAN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +1 | PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +4 Elo | VAN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.2 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 4.632nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−1.2 | Margin | −1.731st of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.2% | Shot share | 41.3%32nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 85.7%32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 31st of 321–8 | Road vs home | 1–732nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 32 |
| 26th of 321470 | Elo rating | 139432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.