Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LA went from 57% to 55% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Nils HoglanderAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
KingsScoring summary
- P317:43Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P210:32Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (4), Brady Skjei (6)2–0
- P15:20Filip Forsberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:20Filip Forsberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (3)NSH 1 – 0 LA · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P210:32Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (4), Brady Skjei (6)NSH 2 – 0 LA · NSH 67% → 83% +16NSH 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P317:43Adam Wilsby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 0 LA · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML NSH +114 / LA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LA: Elo 51.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +12 Elo | LA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 50.0%12th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%23rd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–4 | Road vs home | 2–531st of 32 |
| 1st of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 32 |
| 18th of 321488 | Elo rating | 146926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–4 LA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.