Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
LA went from 56% to 53% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Poke, assists: Evgeni Malkin (8), Kris Letang (8)5–2
- P217:13Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Erik Karlsson (14)4–2
- P23:07Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7), Erik Gustafsson (5)3–2
- P119:31Egor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (4), Evgeni Malkin (6)3–1
- P19:55Corey Perry Goal (2) Batted, assists: Mikey Anderson (2), Artemi Panarin (10)2–1
- P15:10Tommy Novak Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (4)2–0
- P11:52Tommy Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Carlile (3), Kris Letang (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:52Tommy Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Carlile (3), Kris Letang (7)PIT 1 – 0 LA · PIT 47% → 61% +15PIT 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P19:55Corey Perry Goal (2) Batted, assists: Mikey Anderson (2), Artemi Panarin (10)PIT 2 – 1 LA · LA 24% → 37% +14LA 24% → 37%+14 pts
- P119:31Egor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (4), Evgeni Malkin (6)PIT 3 – 1 LA · PIT 65% → 79% +15PIT 65% → 79%+15 pts
- P23:07Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7), Erik Gustafsson (5)PIT 3 – 2 LA · LA 19% → 35% +15LA 19% → 35%+15 pts
- P217:13Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Erik Karlsson (14)PIT 4 – 2 LA · PIT 70% → 87% +17PIT 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Fair odds
- LA -115
- PIT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +24 Elo | LA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.4%14th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 89.1%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 2–429th of 32 |
| 8th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 147526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–2 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.