New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 48% to 45% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Sunday, November 8 at 2:27 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Ben HuttonGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Ben HuttonPoints1
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ivar Stenberg Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P212:12Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (8), Eric Pohlkamp (2)2–2
- P21:11Victor Eklund Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (8), Matthew Schaefer (12)2–1
- P116:41Ivar Stenberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Toffoli (6), Ty Dellandrea (2)1–1
- P16:14Ben Hutton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Bo Horvat (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:14Ben Hutton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (5), Bo Horvat (10)NYI 1 – 0 SJ · NYI 55% → 69% +15NYI 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P116:41Ivar Stenberg Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Toffoli (6), Ty Dellandrea (2)NYI 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 29% → 46% +16SJ 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P21:11Victor Eklund Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (8), Matthew Schaefer (12)NYI 2 – 1 SJ · NYI 54% → 71% +17NYI 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P212:12Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (8), Eric Pohlkamp (2)NYI 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 27% → 46% +20SJ 27% → 46%+20 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML NYI -135 / SJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −10 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | NYI +16 Elo | NYI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −1.130th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.2% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 16th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 32 |
| 12th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 143430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–7 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–1 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.