San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 72% to 72% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists2
- Thomas HarleyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P217:02Will Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Macklin Celebrini (14)3–4
- P214:30Thomas Harley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13), Mikko Rantanen (12)2–4
- P22:47Ivar Stenberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (13), Eric Pohlkamp (1)2–3
- P116:51Jason Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (11), Thomas Harley (9)1–3
- P115:17Jamie Benn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (8)1–2
- P19:16Roope Hintz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (12), Thomas Harley (8)1–1
- P17:22Michael Misa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (12), Will Smith (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:22Michael Misa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (12), Will Smith (6)SJ 1 – 0 DAL · SJ 29% → 44% +15SJ 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P19:16Roope Hintz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (12), Thomas Harley (8)SJ 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 70% +15DAL 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P115:17Jamie Benn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (8)SJ 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 69% → 82% +13DAL 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P214:30Thomas Harley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13), Mikko Rantanen (12)SJ 2 – 4 DAL · DAL 83% → 93% +11DAL 83% → 93%+11 pts
- P217:02Will Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Macklin Celebrini (14)SJ 3 – 4 DAL · SJ 6% → 17% +11SJ 6% → 17%+11 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Stars 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 70%
- Fair odds
- DAL -258
- SJ +258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 3.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +1 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Miro Heiskanen |
| Elo ratings | DAL +148 Elo | DAL 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.43rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 52.9%8th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.9%3rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 30th of 321436 | Elo rating | 15376th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–12 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 4–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–9 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.