Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Devils at 59%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Devils have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Capitals
Now 63%
68%
with a win
59%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Devils
Now 86%
88%
with a win
83%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
NJ went from 59% to 59% over 4 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Fair odds
- NJ -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WSH 2.9 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NJ: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Anthony Mantha, Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | NJ +28 Elo | NJ 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 57.2%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 6th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 8–23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 32 |
| 11th of 321526 | Elo rating | 151513th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack HughesNJ | 23 min | 1.5 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jesper BrattNJ | 19 min | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nico HischierNJ | 19 min | 0.9 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke EvangelistaNJ | 16 min | 0.7 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke HughesNJ | 24 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arseny GritsyukNJ | 17 min | 0.7 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Timo MeierNJ | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan StromeWSH | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex TuchWSH | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dougie HamiltonNJ | 20 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor BrownNJ | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole HutsonWSH | 20 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jakob ChychrunWSH | 24 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan KyrouWSH | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pierre-Luc DuboisWSH | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Evan RodriguesNJ | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex OvechkinWSH | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aliaksei ProtasWSH | 16 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tom WilsonWSH | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan LeonardWSH | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Boone JennerWSH | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cody GlassNJ | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brett PesceNJ | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin SourdifWSH | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Amadeus LombardiNJ | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jesper BoqvistNJ | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Martin FehervaryWSH | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonas SiegenthalerNJ | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Declan ChisholmNJ | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matt RoyWSH | 22 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony BeauvillierWSH | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivan MiroshnichenkoWSH | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack St. IvanyWSH | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Johnathan KovacevicNJ60% to play | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brenden DillonNJ | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Timothy LiljegrenWSH | 15 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin HollWSH | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Capitals
3 listedVincent Desharnais D
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Rasmus Sandin D
Injured ReserveSandin (knee) will be with the Capitals for their two-game road trip, Tarik El-Bashir of Monumental Sports Network reports Monday.
Patrick Thomas C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Devils
3 listedAnthony Mantha RW
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
out
Johnathan Kovacevic D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Seamus Casey D
Injured ReserveCasey will be out of action for 6-8 weeks after undergoing a knee procedure, Kristy Flannery of The Hockey News reports Friday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–8 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–5 NJ in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.