Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
OTT went from 54% to 54% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Cole HutsonGoals1
- Cole HutsonAssists1
- Cole HutsonPoints2
Senators- Hayden HodgsonGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:14Cole Hutson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (12)3–2
- P312:31Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (6), Tom Wilson (4)2–2
- P216:04Hayden Hodgson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9), Stephen Halliday (4)1–2
- P211:05Ridly Greig Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (8), Michael Amadio (5)1–1
- P10:35Matt Roy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (10), Aliaksei Protas (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:35Matt Roy Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (10), Aliaksei Protas (6)WSH 1 – 0 OTT · WSH 46% → 60% +15WSH 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P211:05Ridly Greig Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Thomas Chabot (8), Michael Amadio (5)WSH 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 33% → 53% +20OTT 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P216:04Hayden Hodgson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (9), Stephen Halliday (4)WSH 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 53% → 74% +21OTT 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P312:31Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (6), Tom Wilson (4)WSH 2 – 2 OTT · WSH 14% → 48% +34WSH 14% → 48%+34 pts
- OT1:14Cole Hutson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (12)WSH 3 – 2 OTT · WSH 49% → 92% +43WSH 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML WSH +110 / OTT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 59.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +23 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.58 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Vincent Desharnais |
| Elo ratings | OTT +65 Elo | OTT 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 10th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 6–25th of 32 |
| 4th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148927th of 32 |
| 12th of 321523 | Elo rating | 152810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 OTT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.