Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
OTT went from 50% to 51% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists1
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:44Shane Pinto Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (14), Michael Amadio (4)2–4
- P317:42Nick Cousins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (7), Shane Pinto (7)2–3
- P39:53Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (19), MacKenzie Weegar (3)2–2
- P36:29Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Tyler Kleven (2)1–2
- P19:57Clayton Keller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (5)1–1
- P15:27Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (3), Philip Tomasino (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:27Fabian Zetterlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Stephen Halliday (3), Philip Tomasino (3)UTA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 51% → 66% +15OTT 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P19:57Clayton Keller Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (5)UTA 1 – 1 OTT · UTA 33% → 49% +15UTA 33% → 49%+15 pts
- P36:29Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (8), Tyler Kleven (2)UTA 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 51% → 78% +28OTT 51% → 78%+28 pts
- P39:53Barrett Hayton Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (19), MacKenzie Weegar (3)UTA 2 – 2 OTT · UTA 18% → 49% +31UTA 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P317:42Nick Cousins Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (7), Shane Pinto (7)UTA 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 50% → 97% +47OTT 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Fair odds
- OTT -106
- UTA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.1 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −7 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −4 | −1 | Key absences: John Marino, Ridly Greig, Nate Schmidt |
| Elo ratings | OTT +48 Elo | OTT 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.217th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.111th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 5th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 48.9%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3286.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 152511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–12 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.