New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
WPG went from 44% to 43% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, November 9 at 10:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Cody GlassGoals1
- Declan ChisholmAssists1
- Cody GlassPoints1
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:02Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P311:58Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (4), Viggo Björck (4)2–3
- P21:58Cody Glass Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Declan Chisholm (3)2–2
- P21:14Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jack Hughes (17)1–2
- P115:06Kyle Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (9), Mark Scheifele (15)0–2
- P17:54Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:54Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (8)NJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 43% → 59% +16WPG 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P115:06Kyle Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (9), Mark Scheifele (15)NJ 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 60% → 75% +15WPG 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P21:14Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (6), Jack Hughes (17)NJ 1 – 2 WPG · NJ 22% → 38% +16NJ 22% → 38%+16 pts
- P21:58Cody Glass Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Declan Chisholm (3)NJ 2 – 2 WPG · NJ 38% → 56% +18NJ 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P311:58Dawson Mercer Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (4), Viggo Björck (4)NJ 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 47% → 82% +35WPG 47% → 82%+35 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML NJ -148 / WPG +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -134
- WPG +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WPG: Nico Daws: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Anthony Mantha |
| Elo ratings | WPG +7 Elo | WPG 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.827th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3257.7% | Shot share | 49.1%18th of 32 |
| 18th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.3%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 32 |
| 13th of 321518 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–5 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.