Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Stars at 58%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Stars have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Sabres
Now 52%
56%
with a win
48%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Stars
Now 82%
85%
with a win
79%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Fair odds
- DAL -136
- BUF +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- BUF 2.9 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +49 Elo | DAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 17th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 15386th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason RobertsonDAL | 19 min | 1.0 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikko RantanenDAL | 18 min | 1.0 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Wyatt JohnstonDAL | 19 min | 0.9 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tage ThompsonBUF | 19 min | 0.8 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roope HintzDAL | 16 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rasmus DahlinBUF | 24 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach BensonBUF | 22 min | 0.7 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack QuinnBUF | 18 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Miro HeiskanenDAL60% to play | 21 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Thomas HarleyDAL | 25 min | 0.6 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler SeguinDAL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamie BennDAL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah OstlundBUF | 19 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Owen PowerBUF | 23 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jason ZuckerBUF | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh DoanBUF | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Peyton KrebsBUF | 15 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 24 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan McLeodBUF | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam SteelDAL | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh NorrisBUF | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| David PerronDAL | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arttu HyryDAL | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Esa LindellDAL | 25 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin HryckowianDAL | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Olen ZellwegerBUF | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jiri KulichBUF | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nils LundkvistDAL | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Radek FaksaDAL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joel KivirantaDAL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler MyersDAL | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Conor TimminsBUF | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Beck MalenstynBUF | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lian BichselDAL | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyson KozakBUF | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach MetsaBUF | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Sabres
4 listedAlex Lyon G
Injured ReserveLyon (shoulder) will travel with the Sabres during the team's upcoming road trip, per Heather Engel of NHL.com.
Konsta Helenius C
OutHelenius (upper body) is week-to-week, according to Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic on Monday.
Justin Danforth RW
Injured ReserveDanforth (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Thursday, per the NHL media site.
Matt Grzelcyk D
Injured ReserveGrzelcyk (lower body) suffered a "flare-up" and could be out for at least "a few days," head coach Lindy Ruff told Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News on Tuesday.
Stars
5 listedMiro Heiskanen D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kyle Capobianco D
Injured Reserveir
Oskar Back C
Injured ReserveBack was placed on long-term injured reserve on Saturday.
Matt Duchene C
Injured ReserveDuchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury, the team announced Monday.
Luke Krys D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 4–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–5 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.