New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Ducks at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Ducks have home ice and the starting goalies favor the Ducks.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Islanders
Now 26%
30%
with a win
23%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Ducks
Now 46%
50%
with a win
43%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 59%
- Fair odds
- ANA -112
- NYI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYI 3.1 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +21 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · ANA: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +64 Elo | ANA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 86.9%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–528th of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321475 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo CarlssonANA | 22 min | 1.0 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cutter GauthierANA | 19 min | 0.9 | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew SchaeferNYI | 28 min | 0.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jackson LaCombeANA | 30 min | 0.8 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bo HorvatNYI | 22 min | 0.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikael GranlundANA | 22 min | 0.8 | 2.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Beckett SenneckeANA | 20 min | 0.8 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Simon HolmstromNYI | 19 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor EklundNYI | 16 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden SchennNYI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Judd CaulfieldANA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle PalmieriNYI | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tristan LuneauANA | 17 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tony DeAngeloNYI | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex KillornANA | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anthony DuclairNYI | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Emil HeinemanNYI | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan StanleyNYI | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel MintyukovANA | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ondrej PalatNYI | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frank VatranoANA | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Drew HellesonANA | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam PelechNYI | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roger McQueenANA | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben HuttonNYI | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah WarrenANA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick JensenANA | 16 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Casey CizikasNYI | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tim WasheANA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikita KlepovANA | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew KesselNYI | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Scott MayfieldNYI | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Travis MitchellANA | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyson HindsANA | 17 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Islanders
5 listedMatias Maccelli LW
Injured ReserveMaccelli (lower body) is day-to-day, according to Andrew Gross of Newsday on Monday.
Mathew Barzal C
Injured ReserveBarzal (knee) won't be in the lineup against the Sharks on Monday but has been upgraded to day-to-day, Andrew Gross of Newsday reports.
Ryan Pulock D
Outout
Calum Ritchie C
Injured Reserveir
Alexander Romanov D
Injured Reserveir
Ducks
4 listedTroy Terry RW
Injured ReserveTerry (hip) will likely make his 2026-27 debut against Nashville on Wednesday, according to Eric Stephens of The Athletic.
A.J. Greer LW
Injured ReserveGreer (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Monday.
Ian Moore D
Injured ReserveHead coach Joel Quenneville said Friday that Moore (lower body) is still "a ways from skating," Patrick Present of The Hockey News reports.
Ryan Poehling C
Injured ReservePoehling (knee) is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 4–3 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.