Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
ANA went from 53% to 52% over 5 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, November 7 at 9:50 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kris LetangGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals3
- Mikael GranlundAssists3
- Cutter GauthierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:26Cutter Gauthier Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (21), Mikael Granlund (15)2–5
- P313:42Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (7), Evgeni Malkin (10)2–4
- P38:05Kris Letang Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (9), Erik Karlsson (15)1–4
- P35:12Tristan Luneau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (4), Roger McQueen (1)0–4
- P29:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Beckett Sennecke (12)0–3
- P26:28Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Jackson LaCombe (20)0–2
- P18:26Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Jackson LaCombe (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:26Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (7), Jackson LaCombe (19)PIT 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 52% → 67% +15ANA 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P26:28Cutter Gauthier Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (13), Jackson LaCombe (20)PIT 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 70% → 85% +14ANA 70% → 85%+14 pts
- P29:11Cutter Gauthier Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (14), Beckett Sennecke (12)PIT 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 85% → 94% +9ANA 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P35:12Tristan Luneau Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (4), Roger McQueen (1)PIT 0 – 4 ANA · ANA 99% → >99% +1ANA 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P313:42Rickard Rakell Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (7), Evgeni Malkin (10)PIT 2 – 4 ANA · PIT <1% → 1% +1PIT <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ducks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 52%
- ML PIT +100 / ANA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 60.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +22 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.54 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +73 Elo | ANA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.830th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.1%23rd of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 86.4%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 2–530th of 32 |
| 9th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 18th of 321491 | Elo rating | 148121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.