Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
- The pick
- WPG · Toss-up
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -114
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Jets at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Jets rate higher (1483 to 1403 Elo) and the Blackhawks have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jets
Now 29%
31%
with a win
26%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Blackhawks
Now <1%
1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WPG 3.2 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +42 Elo | WPG 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.232nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −2.132nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 42.8%31st of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 87.2%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 5th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15231st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 140331st of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle ConnorWPG | 23 min | 1.2 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mark ScheifeleWPG | 22 min | 1.2 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor BedardCHI | 19 min | 1.0 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gabriel VilardiWPG | 20 min | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roman KantserovCHI | 18 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler BertuzziCHI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh MorrisseyWPG | 21 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole PerfettiWPG | 16 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anton FrondellCHI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frank NazarCHI | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Teuvo TeravainenCHI | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Neal PionkWPG | 24 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan DonatoCHI | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dawson MercerWPG | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morgan BarronWPG | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver MooreCHI | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex IafalloWPG | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam LowryWPG | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam RinzelCHI | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan GreeneCHI | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artyom LevshunovCHI | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex VlasicCHI | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew MangiapaneCHI | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Wyatt KaiserCHI | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan SambergWPG | 23 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Viggo BjorckWPG | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan DeMeloWPG | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ian ColeCHI | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nino NiederreiterWPG | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole SmithCHI | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mario FerraroWPG | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden YagerWPG | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan GreenwayCHI | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ethan Del MastroCHI | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Haydn FleuryWPG | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin KorchinskiCHI | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jets
3 listedElias Salomonsson D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Vladislav Namestnikov C
Injured Reserveir
Nick Bjugstad C
Injured ReserveBjugstad (pectoral), Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Alexander Command and a pair of draft picks were traded to the Jets from the Devils on Friday in exchange for Connor Hellebuyck.
Blackhawks
2 listedPatrick Kane RW
Injured ReserveKane (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Bowen Byram D
Injured ReserveByram (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 9–3 CHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.