Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Blues 51%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Blues have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Panthers
Now 48%
50%
with a win
45%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
Blues
Now 40%
44%
with a win
35%
with a loss
This game is worth 9 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- FLA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- FLA 3.1 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Sandis Vilmanis |
| Elo ratings | STL +29 Elo | STL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 16th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 32 |
| 30th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 32 |
| 14th of 321511 | Elo rating | 149916th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew TkachukFLA | 18 min | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Robert ThomasSTL | 21 min | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam ReinhartFLA | 19 min | 0.8 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brady TkachukFLA | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jimmy SnuggerudSTL | 19 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan HollowaySTL | 18 min | 0.8 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carter VerhaegheFLA | 18 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam BennettFLA | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Seth JonesFLA | 24 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason McTavishSTL | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anton LundellFLA | 17 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel BuchnevichSTL | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake NeighboursSTL | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Philip BrobergSTL | 27 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor McMichaelSTL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pius SuterSTL | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aaron EkbladFLA | 21 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cam FowlerSTL | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eetu LuostarinenFLA | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonatan BerggrenSTL | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lars EllerFLA | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin BarronSTL | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gustav ForslingFLA | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Colton ParaykoSTL | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan MaillouxSTL | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole ReinhardtFLA | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Otto StenbergSTL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexey ToropchenkoSTL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Uvis BalinskisFLA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aleksanteri KaskimakiSTL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Niko MikkolaFLA | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Radko GudasFLA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Garnet HathawayFLA | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack DevineFLA | 10 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitry KulikovFLA | 15 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon CarloSTL | 18 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Panthers
4 listedSandis Vilmanis LW
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Vilmanis (undisclosed) will probably miss a few games, according to George Richards of Florida Hockey Now on Saturday.
Brad Marchand LW
Injured ReserveHead coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Marchand (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.
Aleksander Barkov C
Injured ReserveHead coach Paul Maurice said Friday that Barkov (knee) will travel with the Panthers during their upcoming three-game road trip, Jameson Olive of the Panthers' official site reports.
Jonah Gadjovich LW
Injured ReserveGadjovich (upper body) is out indefinitely, the team announced Thursday.
Blues
3 listedTorey Krug D
Injured ReserveKrug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube C
Injured Reserveir
Tyler Tucker D
Injured ReserveTucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.