Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Penguins at 54%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Senators rate higher (1525 to 1488 Elo) and the Penguins have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Senators
Now 70%
73%
with a win
67%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Penguins
Now 19%
22%
with a win
17%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -115
- OTT +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- OTT 3.1 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | OTT: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.9%12th of 32 |
| 10th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 87.6%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 32 |
| 26th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 32 |
| 12th of 321525 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim StutzleOTT | 22 min | 1.0 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sidney CrosbyPIT | 20 min | 0.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Evgeni MalkinPIT | 18 min | 0.8 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Drake BathersonOTT | 17 min | 0.8 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik KarlssonPIT | 24 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake SandersonOTT | 24 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rickard RakellPIT | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shane PintoOTT | 20 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan CozensOTT | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Claude GirouxOTT | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Thomas ChabotOTT | 22 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tommy NovakPIT | 15 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael AmadioOTT | 17 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben KindelPIT | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Egor ChinakhovPIT | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ridly GreigOTT | 18 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Stephen HallidayOTT | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kris LetangPIT | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick RobertsonPIT | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Philip TomasinoOTT | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan SpenceOTT | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrei KuzmenkoPIT | 12 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carter YakemchukOTT | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin BrazeauPIT | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artem ZubOTT | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hendrix LapierrePIT | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Avery HayesPIT | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor DewarPIT | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kaedan KorczakPIT | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Blake LizottePIT | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Samuel GirardPIT | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ville KoivunenPIT60% to play | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick CousinsOTT60% to play | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rutger McGroartyPIT | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler KlevenOTT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya SolovyovPIT | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Declan CarlilePIT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Spencer StastneyPIT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 16 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Senators
5 listedNick Cousins C
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Linus Ullmark G
Outout
Andre Burakovsky LW
Injured Reserveir
Warren Foegele LW
Injured ReserveFoegele (knee) will miss 3-4 weeks, Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site reports Saturday.
William Eklund LW
Injured ReserveEklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–11 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 7–2 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.