Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
- The pick
- CAR · Strong
- Line
- Not yet
- Projected
- 4–3
- Fair odds
- -249
Your pick
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Hurricanes at 71%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Hurricanes rate higher (1599 to 1469 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Hurricanes
Now 98%
99%
with a win
98%
with a loss
This game is worth 1 point of playoff chance to them.
Kraken
Now 37%
42%
with a win
35%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
SEA went from 29% to 29% over 5 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Fair odds
- CAR -249
- SEA +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- CAR 3.8 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −1 | −3 | Key absences: Jared McCann, William Carrier |
| Elo ratings | CAR +139 Elo | CAR 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 71.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.68th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.7% | Shot share | 45.9%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 31st of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321599 | Elo rating | 146926th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian AhoCAR | 19 min | 1.0 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikolaj EhlersCAR | 16 min | 0.9 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrei SvechnikovCAR | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jackson BlakeCAR | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shayne GostisbehereCAR | 19 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Seth JarvisCAR | 16 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan StankovenCAR | 16 min | 0.7 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Taylor HallCAR | 13 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan EberleSEA | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chandler StephensonSEA | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vince DunnSEA | 23 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kaapo KakkoSEA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon MontourSEA | 25 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matty BeniersSEA | 19 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bobby McMannSEA | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mark JankowskiCAR | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| K'Andre MillerCAR | 21 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mackie SamoskevichSEA | 15 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan MartinookCAR | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Berkly CattonSEA | 15 min | 0.4 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eric RobinsonCAR | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sean WalkerCAR | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frederick GaudreauSEA | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew WoodSEA | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| William CarrierCAR60% to play | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexander NikishinCAR | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryker EvansSEA | 23 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaccob SlavinCAR | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jalen ChatfieldCAR | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam LarssonSEA | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben MeyersSEA | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mike ReillyCAR | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jani NymanSEA | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan WintertonSEA | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Juuso ValimakiCAR | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ville OttavainenSEA | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joshua MahuraSEA | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cale FleurySEA | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Hurricanes
2 listedWilliam Carrier LW
−1 EloDay-To-DayLed team in points 1/10 recent games
day-to-day
Jordan Staal C
Injured Reserveir
Kraken
6 listedJared McCann LW
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
McCann (lower body) will be out for approximately 10 weeks, the team announced Sunday.
Nikke Kokko G
Injured Reserveir-nr
Curtis Douglas C
Injured Reserveir
Jacob Melanson RW
Injured ReserveMelanson's upper-body injury was diagnosed Saturday as an anterior mediastinum hematoma with vascular pseudo aneurysm. He will continue to be evaluated and is out indefinitely.
Ryan Lindgren D
Injured ReserveLindgren (upper body) was placed on injured reserve by the Kraken on Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks.
Jake O'Brien C
Injured ReserveO'Brien (lower body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve Wednesday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | — | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–3 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.