San Jose Sharks at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Mammoth at 70%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Mammoth rate higher (1507 to 1437 Elo) and the Mammoth have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Sharks
Now 8%
10%
with a win
7%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Mammoth
Now 81%
82%
with a win
77%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Mammoth 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 64%
- Fair odds
- UTA -235
- SJ +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- SJ 2.6 – 3.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −6 | Key absences: Nate Schmidt, John Marino |
| Elo ratings | UTA +103 Elo | UTA 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 86.8%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–7 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 30th of 321437 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton KellerUTA | 20 min | 1.4 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan CooleyUTA | 19 min | 1.1 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Macklin CelebriniSJ | 25 min | 1.1 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikhail SergachevUTA | 26 min | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan GuentherUTA60% to play | 17 min | 1.0 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SchmaltzUTA | 17 min | 0.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vincent TrocheckUTA | 19 min | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Will SmithSJ | 22 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anders LeeUTA | 15 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Barrett HaytonUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| MacKenzie WeegarUTA | 23 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lawson CrouseUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael MisaSJ | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason MarchmentSJ | 18 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexander WennbergSJ | 21 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivar StenbergSJ | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler ToffoliSJ | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael CarconeUTA | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kiefer SherwoodSJ | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eric PohlkampSJ | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack McBainUTA | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin GrafSJ | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew PeekeUTA | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artem DudaUTA | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin StenlundUTA | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jacob TroubaSJ | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitry OrlovSJ | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitri SimashevUTA | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick DeSimoneUTA | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Darnell NurseSJ | 22 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael KesselringSJ | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam DickinsonSJ | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nolan AllanSJ | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ty DellandreaSJ | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Sharks
3 listedIgor Chernyshov LW
Injured Reserveir
Quentin Musty LW
Injured ReserveMusty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.
Kyle Keyser G
Injured ReserveKeyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Mammoth
5 listedNate Schmidt D
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Schmidt (upper body) has no timeline for his return to the lineup, per Brogan Houston of the Deseret News on Monday.
John Marino D
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Dylan Guenther RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kailer Yamamoto RW
Injured ReserveYamamoto (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Friday.
Maveric Lamoureux D
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–12 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–3 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
