Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
The short version
- The betting market favors the Ducks, and the forecast follows it (Ducks 57%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Ducks more, at 60%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Ducks have home ice, the Predators are on a back-to-back and the starting goalies favor the Ducks.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Predators
Now 47%
52%
with a win
43%
with a loss
This game is worth 9 points of playoff chance to them.
Ducks
Now 46%
50%
with a win
42%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
ANA went from 56% to 57% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 57%
- ML NSH +124 / ANA -148
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- ANA: Elo 60.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -134
- NSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +21 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +74 Elo | ANA 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 47.8%24th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 86.9%30th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 3–528th of 32 |
| 4th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 32 |
| 17th of 321493 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo CarlssonANA | 22 min | 1.0 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cutter GauthierANA | 19 min | 1.0 | 2.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Filip ForsbergNSH | 20 min | 1.0 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jackson LaCombeANA | 30 min | 0.9 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikael GranlundANA | 22 min | 0.9 | 2.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Beckett SenneckeANA | 20 min | 0.8 | 2.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roman JosiNSH | 25 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Steven StamkosNSH | 19 min | 0.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan O'ReillyNSH | 20 min | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Judd CaulfieldANA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tristan LuneauANA | 17 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mavrik BourqueNSH | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex KillornANA | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shane WrightNSH | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack DruryNSH | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ross ColtonNSH | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexander KerfootNSH | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam WilsbyNSH | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brady SkjeiNSH | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel MintyukovANA | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nils HoglanderNSH | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frank VatranoANA | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam EdstromNSH | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Drew HellesonANA | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roger McQueenANA | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah WarrenANA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick JensenANA | 16 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick PerbixNSH | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tim WasheANA | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Reid SchaeferNSH | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikita KlepovANA | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jayden StrubleNSH | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya LyubushkinNSH | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Daemon HuntNSH | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nicolas HagueNSH | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Travis MitchellANA | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyson HindsANA | 17 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Predators
1 listedJonathan Marchessault RW
Outout
Ducks
4 listedTroy Terry RW
Injured ReserveTerry (hip) will likely make his 2026-27 debut against Nashville on Wednesday, according to Eric Stephens of The Athletic.
A.J. Greer LW
Injured ReserveGreer (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Monday.
Ian Moore D
Injured ReserveHead coach Joel Quenneville said Friday that Moore (lower body) is still "a ways from skating," Patrick Present of The Hockey News reports.
Ryan Poehling C
Injured ReservePoehling (knee) is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–5 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–7 ANA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 9.