Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Bruins at 56%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bruins have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Canadiens
Now 73%
77%
with a win
69%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Bruins
Now 75%
77%
with a win
72%
with a loss
This game is worth 5 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
BOS went from 55% to 56% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -126
- MTL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: James Hagens, Mike Matheson |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.52nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–2 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321535 | Elo rating | 15359th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David PastrnakBOS | 21 min | 1.3 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SuzukiMTL | 19 min | 0.9 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel ZachaBOS | 21 min | 0.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lane HutsonMTL | 25 min | 0.8 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole CaufieldMTL | 17 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| JJ PeterkaBOS | 18 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morgan GeekieBOS | 15 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charlie McAvoyBOS | 23 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Elias LindholmBOS | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Juraj SlafkovskyMTL | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Casey MittelstadtBOS | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah DobsonMTL | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fraser MintenBOS | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex NewhookMTL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zack BolducMTL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chris KreiderMTL | 12 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frederic BrunetBOS | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Phillip DanaultMTL | 18 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake EvansMTL | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kaiden GuhleMTL | 24 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexandre TexierMTL | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason LohreiBOS | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marat KhusnutdinovBOS | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh AndersonMTL | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexandre CarrierMTL | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kirby DachMTL | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hampus LindholmBOS | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael EyssimontBOS | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Will BorgenBOS | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikita ZadorovBOS | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tanner JeannotBOS | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sean KuralyBOS | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver KapanenMTL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonathan AspirotBOS | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor CliftonBOS | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam EngstromMTL | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arber XhekajMTL | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Canadiens
5 listedMike Matheson D
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Ivan Demidov RW
Injured ReserveDemidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports.
Sam Montembeault G
Injured ReserveMontembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Bryce Pickford D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Lucas Condotta LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Bruins
1 listedJames Hagens C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Head coach Marco Sturm announced Saturday that Hagens (back) is expected to miss multiple weeks, per Jack Studley of Boston Hockey Now.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–10 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–7 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.