Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Avalanche 50%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Avalanche rate higher (1568 to 1525 Elo), the Senators have home ice and the starting goalies favor the Senators.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Avalanche
Now 94%
95%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Senators
Now 70%
73%
with a win
66%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
OTT went from 51% to 50% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Avalanche 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Fair odds
- COL -101
- OTT +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- COL 3.2 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +24 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.59 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +16 Elo | OTT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.215th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 48.9%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%10th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 28th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321568 | Elo rating | 152512th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 21 min | 1.2 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tim StutzleOTT | 22 min | 1.0 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Martin NecasCOL | 20 min | 1.0 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cale MakarCOL | 24 min | 0.9 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Drake BathersonOTT | 17 min | 0.8 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake SandersonOTT | 24 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shane PintoOTT | 20 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan CozensOTT | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artturi LehkonenCOL | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nazem KadriCOL | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Claude GirouxOTT | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Devon ToewsCOL | 23 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Thomas ChabotOTT | 22 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brock NelsonCOL | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gabriel LandeskogCOL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael AmadioOTT | 17 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ridly GreigOTT | 18 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| T.J. HughesCOL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Stephen HallidayOTT | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Philip TomasinoOTT | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jordan SpenceOTT | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Parker KellyCOL | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Carter YakemchukOTT | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artem ZubOTT | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nicolas RoyCOL | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brent BurnsCOL | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick CousinsOTT60% to play | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan O'ConnorCOL | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler KlevenOTT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fedor SvechkovCOL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brett KulakCOL | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah JuulsenCOL | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 16 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Avalanche
2 listedJosh Manson D
Injured Reserveir
Zachary L'Heureux LW
Injured Reserveir-lt
Senators
5 listedNick Cousins C
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Linus Ullmark G
Outout
Andre Burakovsky LW
Injured Reserveir
Warren Foegele LW
Injured ReserveFoegele (knee) will miss 3-4 weeks, Jackson Starr of the Senators' official site reports Saturday.
William Eklund LW
Injured ReserveEklund had surgery to repair a torn ankle tendon and will be out 10-12 weeks, Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports Thursday.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–7 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–1 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.