Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
- The pick
- VGK · Toss-up
- Line
- UTA +105 / VGK -125
- Projected
- 3–3
- Fair odds
- -114
Your pick
The short version
- The betting market favors the Golden Knights, and the forecast follows it (Golden Knights 53%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings like the Golden Knights more, at 61%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Golden Knights have home ice and the Golden Knights rate higher (1539 to 1507 Elo).
- It's moved toward the Mammoth since we first logged it, from 43% to 47%.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Mammoth
Now 81%
84%
with a win
78%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Golden Knights
Now 95%
96%
with a win
94%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
VGK went from 57% to 53% over 7 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML UTA +105 / VGK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- UTA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- UTA 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +2 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | — | Key absences: Nate Schmidt, John Marino |
| Elo ratings | VGK +78 Elo | VGK 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 52.5%10th of 32 |
| 31st of 3286.8% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 10th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton KellerUTA | 20 min | 1.1 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mitch MarnerVGK | 21 min | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack EichelVGK | 20 min | 1.1 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mark StoneVGK | 19 min | 0.9 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan CooleyUTA | 19 min | 0.9 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikhail SergachevUTA | 26 min | 0.9 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan GuentherUTA60% to play | 17 min | 0.8 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SchmaltzUTA | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vincent TrocheckUTA | 19 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Shea TheodoreVGK | 23 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tomas HertlVGK | 14 min | 0.6 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivan BarbashevVGK | 14 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Trevor ConnellyVGK | 14 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| William KarlssonVGK | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brett HowdenVGK | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anders LeeUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Barrett HaytonUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| MacKenzie WeegarUTA | 23 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lawson CrouseUTA | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor OlofssonVGK | 13 min | 0.4 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rasmus AnderssonVGK | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braeden BowmanVGK | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden McNabbVGK | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael CarconeUTA | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack McBainUTA | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew PeekeUTA | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artem DudaUTA | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin StenlundUTA | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nic DowdVGK | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitri SimashevUTA | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick DeSimoneUTA | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jeremy LauzonVGK | 18 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan CoghlanVGK | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonas RondbjergVGK | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Mammoth
5 listedNate Schmidt D
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Schmidt (upper body) has no timeline for his return to the lineup, per Brogan Houston of the Deseret News on Monday.
John Marino D
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Dylan Guenther RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kailer Yamamoto RW
Injured ReserveYamamoto (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Friday.
Maveric Lamoureux D
Injured Reserveir
Golden Knights
2 listedNoah Hanifin D
Outout
Parker Wotherspoon D
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–12 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 5–7 VGK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- May 1VGK 5 @ UTA 1PlayoffsPicked VGK 52%Hit
- Apr 29UTA 4 @ VGK 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Apr 27VGK 5 @ UTA 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 55%Hit
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ UTA 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 50%Miss
- Apr 21UTA 3 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 57%Miss
- Apr 19UTA 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Mar 19UTA 4 @ VGK 0Picked VGK 55%Miss
- Nov 24VGK 1 @ UTA 5Picked UTA 50%Hit