St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Mammoth at 57%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Mammoth have home ice and the Mammoth are on a back-to-back.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Blues
Now 40%
45%
with a win
36%
with a loss
This game is worth 9 points of playoff chance to them.
Mammoth
Now 81%
84%
with a win
77%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
UTA went from 57% to 57% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Mammoth 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 49%
- Fair odds
- UTA -131
- STL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | UTA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −8 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTA: Sebastian Cossa: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −6 | Key absences: Nate Schmidt, John Marino |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 86.8%31st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 32 |
| 8th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Elo rating | 150715th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton KellerUTA | 20 min | 1.2 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan CooleyUTA | 19 min | 1.0 | 1.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Robert ThomasSTL | 21 min | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikhail SergachevUTA | 26 min | 0.9 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan GuentherUTA60% to play | 17 min | 0.9 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SchmaltzUTA | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vincent TrocheckUTA | 19 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jimmy SnuggerudSTL | 19 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan HollowaySTL | 18 min | 0.7 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason McTavishSTL | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel BuchnevichSTL | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake NeighboursSTL | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Philip BrobergSTL | 27 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Anders LeeUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Barrett HaytonUTA | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| MacKenzie WeegarUTA | 23 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lawson CrouseUTA | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor McMichaelSTL | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pius SuterSTL | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cam FowlerSTL | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael CarconeUTA | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonatan BerggrenSTL | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jack McBainUTA | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin BarronSTL | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Colton ParaykoSTL | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan MaillouxSTL | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrew PeekeUTA | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artem DudaUTA | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kevin StenlundUTA | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Otto StenbergSTL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitri SimashevUTA | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexey ToropchenkoSTL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick DeSimoneUTA | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Aleksanteri KaskimakiSTL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brandon CarloSTL | 18 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Blues
3 listedTorey Krug D
Injured ReserveKrug (ankle) was placed on long-term injured reserve by the Blues on Monday, per PuckPedia.
Dillon Dube C
Injured Reserveir
Tyler Tucker D
Injured ReserveTucker had arthroscopic knee surgery and will be re-assessed in six weeks, the team announced Wednesday.
Mammoth
5 listedNate Schmidt D
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Schmidt (upper body) has no timeline for his return to the lineup, per Brogan Houston of the Deseret News on Monday.
John Marino D
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
ir
Dylan Guenther RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kailer Yamamoto RW
Injured ReserveYamamoto (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Friday.
Maveric Lamoureux D
Injured Reserveir
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 UTA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
