Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, and our pre-line forecast calls it about even (Wild 51%). It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Bruins have home ice and the Wild rate higher (1552 to 1535 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Wild
Now 95%
96%
with a win
94%
with a loss
This game is worth 2 points of playoff chance to them.
Bruins
Now 75%
77%
with a win
72%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Fair odds
- MIN -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- MIN 3.2 – 3.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +4 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: James Hagens |
| Elo ratings | BOS +9 Elo | BOS 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 2.32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +1.52nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321552 | Elo rating | 15359th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David PastrnakBOS | 21 min | 1.2 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Quinn HughesMIN | 30 min | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kirill KaprizovMIN | 21 min | 1.1 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matt BoldyMIN | 21 min | 0.9 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel ZachaBOS | 21 min | 0.8 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joel Eriksson EkMIN | 18 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| JJ PeterkaBOS | 18 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morgan GeekieBOS | 15 min | 0.6 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Charlie McAvoyBOS | 23 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Elias LindholmBOS | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Casey MittelstadtBOS | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Maxim ShabanovMIN | 15 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Blake ColemanMIN | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Bobby BrinkMIN | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Danila YurovMIN | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fraser MintenBOS | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ryan HartmanMIN | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonas BrodinMIN | 25 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Frederic BrunetBOS | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason LohreiBOS | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Olli MaattaMIN | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marat KhusnutdinovBOS | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hampus LindholmBOS | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jared SpurgeonMIN | 17 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael McCarronMIN | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael EyssimontBOS | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Will BorgenBOS | 21 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nikita ZadorovBOS | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tanner JeannotBOS | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sean KuralyBOS | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nico SturmMIN | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marcus FolignoMIN | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Yakov TreninMIN | 13 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonathan AspirotBOS | 15 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor CliftonBOS | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matt KierstedMIN | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zach BogosianMIN | 16 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| David SpacekMIN | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Wild
2 listedFilip Gustavsson G
Injured ReserveGustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.
Brock Faber D
Injured ReserveFaber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.
Bruins
1 listedJames Hagens C
−3 EloInjured ReserveLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Head coach Marco Sturm announced Saturday that Hagens (back) is expected to miss multiple weeks, per Jack Studley of Boston Hockey Now.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–7 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 8–1 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–13 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.