Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
The short version
- The betting market favors the Penguins, and the forecast follows it (Penguins 55%) because lines have beaten every rating model we've tested.
- Our own ratings land in about the same place, at 54%.
- Behind our ratings' number: the Penguins rate higher (1488 to 1437 Elo) and the Sharks have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Penguins
Now 19%
22%
with a win
16%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
Sharks
Now 8%
9%
with a win
6%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
SJ went from 48% to 45% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Tuesday, November 10 at 10:24 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML PIT -135 / SJ +114
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- SJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- PIT 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +25 Elo | PIT 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.029th of 32 |
| 12th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 89.1%16th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 143730th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin CelebriniSJ | 25 min | 1.3 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sidney CrosbyPIT | 20 min | 0.9 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Will SmithSJ | 22 min | 0.8 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Evgeni MalkinPIT | 18 min | 0.8 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Erik KarlssonPIT | 24 min | 0.7 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rickard RakellPIT | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael MisaSJ | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mason MarchmentSJ | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexander WennbergSJ | 21 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ivar StenbergSJ | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler ToffoliSJ | 13 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tommy NovakPIT | 15 min | 0.5 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kiefer SherwoodSJ | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ben KindelPIT | 19 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eric PohlkampSJ | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.5 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Egor ChinakhovPIT | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kris LetangPIT | 20 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick RobertsonPIT | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Collin GrafSJ | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Andrei KuzmenkoPIT | 12 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin BrazeauPIT | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Hendrix LapierrePIT | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jacob TroubaSJ | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Avery HayesPIT | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Connor DewarPIT | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kaedan KorczakPIT | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dmitry OrlovSJ | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Blake LizottePIT | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Samuel GirardPIT | 19 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ville KoivunenPIT60% to play | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Darnell NurseSJ | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Rutger McGroartyPIT | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ilya SolovyovPIT | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Michael KesselringSJ | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam DickinsonSJ | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nolan AllanSJ | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Declan CarlilePIT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Spencer StastneyPIT | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Ty DellandreaSJ | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Penguins
5 listedVille Koivunen RW
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Elmer Soderblom LW
Injured ReserveSoderblom (upper body) is week-to-week, per Penguins PR on Monday.
Bryan Rust RW
Injured ReserveRust (lower body) will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Michelle Crechiolo of the Penguins' official site reports Thursday.
Trevor van Riemsdyk D
Injured Reserveir
Ryan Graves D
Injured ReserveGraves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday.
Sharks
3 listedIgor Chernyshov LW
Injured Reserveir
Quentin Musty LW
Injured ReserveMusty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.
Kyle Keyser G
Injured ReserveKeyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–9 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–2 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.