Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Avalanche at 53%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Canadiens have home ice and the Avalanche rate higher (1568 to 1535 Elo).
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Avalanche
Now 94%
95%
with a win
93%
with a loss
This game is worth 3 points of playoff chance to them.
Canadiens
Now 73%
76%
with a win
70%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -112
- MTL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- COL 3.2 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Mike Matheson |
| Elo ratings | MTL +7 Elo | MTL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.112th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 49.7%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%11th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 32 |
| 28th of 321488 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321568 | Elo rating | 15358th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 21 min | 1.3 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Martin NecasCOL | 20 min | 1.0 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nick SuzukiMTL | 19 min | 0.9 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cale MakarCOL | 24 min | 0.9 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lane HutsonMTL | 25 min | 0.9 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole CaufieldMTL | 17 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Juraj SlafkovskyMTL | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Artturi LehkonenCOL | 18 min | 0.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nazem KadriCOL | 16 min | 0.6 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Devon ToewsCOL | 23 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brock NelsonCOL | 16 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gabriel LandeskogCOL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah DobsonMTL | 22 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex NewhookMTL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zack BolducMTL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Chris KreiderMTL | 12 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | 13 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | 19 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| T.J. HughesCOL | 15 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Phillip DanaultMTL | 18 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake EvansMTL | 17 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kaiden GuhleMTL | 24 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexandre TexierMTL | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Parker KellyCOL | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh AndersonMTL | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexandre CarrierMTL | 22 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kirby DachMTL | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nicolas RoyCOL | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brent BurnsCOL | 16 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Logan O'ConnorCOL | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver KapanenMTL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Fedor SvechkovCOL | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brett KulakCOL | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah JuulsenCOL | 13 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam EngstromMTL | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arber XhekajMTL | 12 min | 0.1 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Avalanche
2 listedJosh Manson D
Injured Reserveir
Zachary L'Heureux LW
Injured Reserveir-lt
Canadiens
5 listedMike Matheson D
−3 EloOutLed team in points 1/10 recent games
Matheson (lower body) is expected to miss two weeks, Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports Saturday.
Ivan Demidov RW
Injured ReserveDemidov (foot) skated Tuesday and could resume training with the team next week, Patrick Friolet of RDS reports.
Sam Montembeault G
Injured ReserveMontembeault (lower body) is considered day-to-day, according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports on Saturday.
Bryce Pickford D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Lucas Condotta LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–7 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–4 MTL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.