New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Rangers at 61%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Rangers rate higher (1486 to 1390 Elo) and the Canucks have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Rangers
Now 34%
37%
with a win
30%
with a loss
This game is worth 7 points of playoff chance to them.
Canucks
Now <1%
<1%
with a win
<1%
with a loss
Their playoff odds barely move on this one.
How the forecast moved
VAN went from 40% to 39% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 59%
- Fair odds
- NYR -159
- VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- NYR 3.5 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +60 Elo | NYR 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 61.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 4.532nd of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −1.731st of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 41.7%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 85.8%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 27th of 322–7 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 139032nd of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam FoxNYR | 25 min | 1.1 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mika ZibanejadNYR | 21 min | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| J.T. MillerNYR | 20 min | 0.9 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Elias PetterssonVAN | 22 min | 0.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alexis LafreniereNYR | 19 min | 0.8 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brock BoeserVAN | 21 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Pavel DorofeyevNYR | 17 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tye KartyeNYR | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Filip HronekVAN | 29 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jake DeBruskVAN | 19 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gabe PerreaultNYR | 17 min | 0.6 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jonathan LekkerimakiVAN | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Will CuylleNYR | 17 min | 0.5 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Oliver BjorkstrandNYR | 13 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marco RossiVAN | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Linus KarlssonVAN | 14 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Vladislav GavrikovNYR | 22 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Zeev BuiumVAN | 24 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Noah LabaNYR | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Max SassonVAN | 13 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Drew O'ConnorVAN | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Eeli TolvanenNYR | 10 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Liam OhgrenVAN | 12 min | 0.3 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tom WillanderVAN60% to play | 20 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Marcus PetterssonNYR | 21 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Paul CotterVAN | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brendan GallagherVAN | 11 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Braden SchneiderNYR | 20 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Matthew RobertsonNYR | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Guillaume BriseboisVAN | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Scott MorrowNYR | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamie OleksiakVAN | 16 min | 0.2 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jacob QuillanVAN | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arshdeep BainsVAN | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Elias N. PetterssonVAN | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Victor ManciniVAN | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Luke SchennVAN | 11 min | 0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Rangers
6 listedAlberts Smits D
Injured Reserveir
Sean Durzi D
Injured ReserveDurzi (undisclosed) was put on injured reserve Thursday, per Mollie Walker of the New York Post.
Igor Shesterkin G
Injured ReserveShesterkin will require surgery and a lengthy rehab process to address his season-ending right knee injury, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports Sunday.
Joe Veleno C
Injured ReserveVeleno (lower body) was placed on long-term injured reserve Saturday, Vince Z. Mercogliano of The Athletic reports.
Aidan Thompson C
Injured Reserveir-nr
Adam Sykora LW
Injured Reserveir
Canucks
4 listedTom Willander D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Filip Chytil C
Injured ReserveChytil (shoulder) will not be in action versus the Flyers on Monday, Canucks play-by-play announcer Brendan Batchelor reports.
Mackenzie MacEachern LW
Injured Reserveir-nr
Thatcher Demko G
Injured ReserveCo-president of hockey operations Henrik Sedin said Monday that he hopes Demko (hip) will be ready to return before Christmas, Kevin Woodley of NHL.com reports.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–9 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–2 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.