Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
The short version
- No betting line is up yet, so this is our pre-line forecast: the Stars at 65%, from our Elo ratings and what past lines said about each team. It switches to the line once one posts.
- Behind that number: the Stars rate higher (1538 to 1483 Elo) and the Stars have home ice.
What's at stake
Each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins this game and if it loses, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Jets
Now 29%
34%
with a win
26%
with a loss
This game is worth 8 points of playoff chance to them.
Stars
Now 82%
84%
with a win
79%
with a loss
This game is worth 6 points of playoff chance to them.
How the forecast moved
DAL went from 65% to 65% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
The pick
Live forecast: refreshes with lines and injury news until the game starts, then locks. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Stars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 63%
- Fair odds
- DAL -183
- WPG +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Projected score
- WPG 2.7 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.44th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 53.2%6th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–6 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 32 |
| 5th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 15386th of 32 |
Player props
Projected from ice time and per-minute production, and each goalie's expected shots against, next to sportsbook lines once they post. Over chances follow the book's own number with its margin removed, which was the more accurate of the two on 159,528 graded NHL lines (log loss 0.549 vs our model's 0.551). Where our model disagreed with the price by 10+ points (tagged "model"), bets won 57% and returned +6.9% a bet over 2,488 graded lines. Not betting advice.
| Player | Role | Proj | L5 | Line | L10 | Over | Model | Parlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason RobertsonDAL | 19 min | 1.1 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mikko RantanenDAL | 18 min | 1.1 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Kyle ConnorWPG | 23 min | 1.0 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mark ScheifeleWPG | 22 min | 1.0 | 1.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Wyatt JohnstonDAL | 19 min | 1.0 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Roope HintzDAL | 16 min | 0.8 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Gabriel VilardiWPG | 20 min | 0.7 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Miro HeiskanenDAL60% to play | 21 min | 0.6 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Thomas HarleyDAL | 25 min | 0.6 | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler SeguinDAL | 14 min | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Jamie BennDAL | 14 min | 0.5 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Josh MorrisseyWPG | 21 min | 0.5 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Cole PerfettiWPG | 16 min | 0.5 | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Sam SteelDAL | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Neal PionkWPG | 24 min | 0.4 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dawson MercerWPG | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| David PerronDAL | 11 min | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Arttu HyryDAL | 16 min | 0.4 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Esa LindellDAL | 25 min | 0.4 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Justin HryckowianDAL | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Morgan BarronWPG | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Alex IafalloWPG | 14 min | 0.3 | 0.6 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Adam LowryWPG | 15 min | 0.3 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nils LundkvistDAL | 18 min | 0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Radek FaksaDAL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan SambergWPG | 23 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Joel KivirantaDAL | 12 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Viggo BjorckWPG | 14 min | 0.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Dylan DeMeloWPG | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Tyler MyersDAL | 19 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Nino NiederreiterWPG | 10 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Mario FerraroWPG | 18 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Brayden YagerWPG | 11 min | 0.2 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Lian BichselDAL | 17 min | 0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | No line |
| Haydn FleuryWPG | 14 min | 0.1 | 0.4 | — | — | — | — | No line |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Injury report
Current ESPN report. Elo values show what the model subtracts.
Jets
3 listedElias Salomonsson D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Vladislav Namestnikov C
Injured Reserveir
Nick Bjugstad C
Injured ReserveBjugstad (pectoral), Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Alexander Command and a pair of draft picks were traded to the Jets from the Devils on Friday in exchange for Connor Hellebuyck.
Stars
5 listedMiro Heiskanen D
Day-To-Dayday-to-day
Kyle Capobianco D
Injured Reserveir
Oskar Back C
Injured ReserveBack was placed on long-term injured reserve on Saturday.
Matt Duchene C
Injured ReserveDuchene will be out for approximately three months after undergoing surgery to repair a core injury, the team announced Monday.
Luke Krys D
Injured Reserveir-nr
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 4–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 6–13 DAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.
- Oct 22WPG 2 @ DAL 3Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Apr 2WPG 0 @ DAL 3Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Feb 2WPG 3 @ DAL 4Picked DAL 57%Hit
- Dec 9DAL 4 @ WPG 3Picked DAL 57%Hit
- Oct 9DAL 5 @ WPG 4Picked WPG 50%Miss
- May 17WPG 1 @ DAL 2PlayoffsPicked DAL 58%Hit
- May 15DAL 0 @ WPG 4PlayoffsPicked WPG 55%Hit
- May 13WPG 1 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 58%Hit